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Historical dynamics

"Taking up the problem of territorial dynamics - why some polities at certain times expand and at other times contract - this book shows that a similar research program can advance our understanding of dynamical processes in history." "Peter Turchin develops hypotheses from a wide ran...

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Permalink: http://skupnikatalog.nsk.hr/Record/ffzg.KOHA-OAI-FFZG:331358/TOC
Glavni autor: Turchin, Peter, 1957- (-)
Vrsta građe: Knjiga
Jezik: eng
Impresum: Princeton : Princeton University Press, c2003.
Nakladnička cjelina: Princeton studies in complexity
Princeton studies in complexity.
Online pristup: Sadržaj
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  • Machine derived contents note: Table of contents for Historical dynamics : why states rise and fall / Peter Turchin.
  • Bibliographic record and links to related information available from the Library of Congress catalog
  • Information from electronic data provided by the publisher. May be incomplete or contain other coding.
  • List of Figures viii
  • List of Tables x
  • Preface xi
  • Chapter 1. Statement of the Problem 1
  • 1.1 Why Do We Need a Mathematical Theory in History? 1
  • 1.2 Historical Dynamics as a Research Program 3
  • 1.2.1 Delimiting the Set of Questions 4
  • 1.2.2 AFocus on Agrarian Polities 4
  • 1.2.3 The Hierarchical Modeling Approach 5
  • 1.2.4 Mathematical Framework 5
  • 1.3 Summary 7
  • Chapter 2. Geopolitics 9
  • 2.1 APrimer of Dynamics 9
  • 2.1.1 Boundless Growth 9
  • 2.1.2 Equilibrial Dynamics 11
  • 2.1.3 Boom/Bust Dynamics and Sustained Oscillations 12
  • 2.1.4 Implications for Historical Dynamics 14
  • 2.2 The Collins Theory of Geopolitics 16
  • 2.2.1 Modeling Size and Distance Effects 16
  • 2.2.2 Positional Effects 20
  • 2.2.3 Conflict-legitimacy Dynamics 23
  • 2.3 Conclusion: Geopolitics as a First-order Process 25
  • 2.4 Summary 27
  • Chapter 3. Collective Solidarity 29
  • 3.1 Groups in Sociology 29
  • 3.1.1 Groups as Analytical Units 29
  • 3.1.2 Evolution of Solidaristic Behaviors 31
  • 3.1.3 Ethnic Groups and Ethnicity 33
  • 3.1.4 The Social Scale 34
  • 3.1.5 Ethnies 36
  • 3.2 Collective Solidarity and Historical Dynamics 36
  • 3.2.1 Ibn Khaldun's Theory 38
  • 3.2.2 Gumilev's Theory 40
  • 3.2.3 The Modern Context 42
  • 3.3 Summary 47
  • Chapter 4. The Metaethnic Frontier Theory 50
  • 4.1 Frontiers as Incubators of Group Solidarity 50
  • 4.1.1 Factors Causing Solidarity Increase 51
  • 4.1.2 Imperial Boundaries and Metaethnic Fault Lines 53
  • 4.1.3 Scaling-up Structures 57
  • 4.1.4 Placing the Metaethnic Frontier Theory in Context 59
  • 4.2 Mathematical Theory 63
  • 4.2.1 A Simple Analytical Model 64
  • 4.2.2 A Spatially Explicit Simulation 68
  • 4.3 Summary 75
  • Chapter 5. An Empirical Test of the Metaethnic Frontier Theory 78
  • 5.1 Setting Up the Test 78
  • 5.1.1 Quantifying Frontiers 79
  • 5.1.2 Polity Size 81
  • 5.2 Results 83
  • 5.2.1 Europe:0 -1000 c.e.83
  • 5.2.2 Europe:1000 -1900 c.e.86
  • 5.3 Positional Advantage? 89
  • 5.4 Conclusion: The Making of Europe 91
  • 5.5 Summary 92
  • Chapter 6. Ethnokinetics 94
  • 6.1 Allegiance Dynamics of Incorporated Populations 94
  • 6.2 Theory 95
  • 6.2.1 Nonspatial Models of Assimilation 95
  • 6.2.2 Spatially Explicit Models 99
  • 6.3 Empirical Tests 104
  • 6.3.1 Conversion to Islam 105
  • 6.3.2 The Rise of Christianity 111
  • 6.3.3 The Growth of the Mormon Church 112
  • 6.4 Conclusion: Data Support the Autocatalytic Model 113
  • 6.5 Summary 116
  • Chapter 7. The Demographic-Structural Theory 118
  • 7.1 Population Dynamics and State Breakdown 118
  • 7.2 Mathematical Theory 121
  • 7.2.1 The Basic Demographic-Fiscal Model 121
  • 7.2.2 Adding Class Structure 127
  • 7.2.3 Models for Elite Cycles 131
  • 7.2.4 Models for the Chinese Dynastic Cycle 137
  • 7.2.5 Summing up Theoretical Insights 138
  • 7.3 Empirical Applications 140
  • 7.3.1 Periodic Breakdowns of Early Modern States 140
  • 7.3.2 The Great Wave 143
  • 7.3.3 After the Black Death 145
  • 7.4 Summary 148
  • Chapter 8. Secular Cycles in Population Numbers 150
  • 8.1 Introduction 150
  • 8.2 "Scale" and "Order" in Human Population Dynamics 150
  • 8.3 Long-Term Empirical Patterns 155
  • 8.3.1 Reconstructions of Historical Populations 155
  • 8.3.2 Archaeological Data 161
  • 8.4 Population Dynamics and Political Instability 164
  • 8.5 Summary 167
  • Chapter 9. Case Studies 170
  • 9.1 France 170
  • 9.1.1 The Frontier Origins 170
  • 9.1.2 Secular Waves 176
  • 9.1.3 Summary 184
  • 9.2 Russia 184
  • 9.2.1 The Frontier Origins 184
  • 9.2.2 Secular Waves 191
  • 9.2.3 Summary 196
  • Chapter 10. Conclusion 197
  • 10.1 Overview of Main Developments 197
  • 10.1.1 Asabiya and Metaethnic Frontiers 197
  • 10.1.2 Ethnic Assimilation 198
  • 10.1.3 Demographic-Structural Theory 199
  • 10.1.4 Geopolitics 199
  • 10.2 Combining Different Mechanisms into an Integrated Whole 200
  • 10.3 Broadening the Focus of Investigation 203
  • 10.4 Toward Theoretical Cliodynamics? 204
  • Appendix A. Mathematical Appendix 205
  • A.1 Translating the Hanneman Model into Differential Equations 205
  • A.2 The Spatial Simulation of the Frontier Hypothesis 206
  • A.3 Demographic-Structural Models with Class Structure 208
  • A.4 Models for Elite Cycles 212
  • Appendix B. Data Summaries for the Test of the Metaethnic Frontier Theory 214
  • B.1 Brief Descriptions of "Cultural Regions" 214
  • B.2 Quantification of Frontiers 215
  • B.3 Quantification of Polity Sizes: The First Millennium c.e. 224
  • B.4 Quantification of Polity Sizes: The Second Millennium c.e. 225
  • Bibliography 226
  • Index 243
  • Library of Congress subject headings for this publication: History Mathematical models, Historiometry.

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